Trump's War on Science is a War on US Manufacturing

Manufacturing needs a skilled workforce and an expert engineering cadre- and Trump is destroying both with his cuts to universities and institutions like the NSF

To paraphrase a sage political analyst, Trump doesn’t hold the cards to win a trade war with China. As an NY Times piece yesterday detailed, US manufacturers are rapidly running out of components dependent on rare earth metals China controls, particularly rare earth magnets:

Carmakers need the magnets for the electric motors that run brakes, steering and fuel injectors...China produces 90 percent of the world’s nearly 200,000 tons a year of...rare earth magnets."

But even if the US could get critical rare earths - say through the blackmail Trump is using against Ukraine or taking over Greenland - US manufacturers would struggle to produce competitive rare earth magnets since the United States lacks the manpower and expertise in that field. In China on the other hand, "Rare earth chemistry programs are offered in 39 universities across the country, while the United States has no similar programs."

China’s advantages in manufacturing are not just their control of resources or low wages but greater investments in advanced manufacturing education and engineering.

The idiocy of Trump's stated goal of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. is that he's doing NOTHING to invest in the expertise needed for competitive manufacturing; in fact, he's starving universities of the funds that might bolster engineering skills needed. Currently, the U.S is not producing the engineers needed for present manufacturing needs - creating stress in hiring markets. "Every year, the US will need about 400,000 new engineers...This persistent talent gap risks short-circuiting progress of several essential industries." /4

Imagine an administration that took this problem seriously— ie. exactly what the Biden White House was doing as they ramped up manufacturing at a pace not seen in decades.

But it wasn’t just investments directly in green jobs via the Inflation Reduction Act or the infrastructure bill or the CHIPS Act; it was also investments in building the workforce and the expertise to implement advanced manufacturing techniques in new workplaces.

Biden promoted what he called the Advanced Manufacturing Workforce Sprint, which was dedicated to building a pipeline of skilled workers for advanced manufacturing jobs, some that wouldn’t need a college degree but others for the skilled engineering occupations to implement the technology needed. Much of this work was being done through new partnerships with universities, including the participation of 850 community colleges, universities and labor organizations planning the work.

Some examples of the programs being funded included:

A real commitment to manufacturing requires partnerships with universities - not a war with them - and to recruit new people into advanced manufacturing fields - ie. the dreaded Diversity, Equity and Inclusion approaches to expand the skilled workforce.

One center for this work was the National Science Foundation (NSF), which was targeting manufacturing technology to enhance US competitiveness.

And Trump - along with his war on universities, he has ordered the gutting of the National Science Foundation, dismantling the systems of grantmaking that had been making the Biden manufacturing boom possible. The Trump administration has requested a 55% reduction in the NSF’s budget - a wholesale destruction of one of the main engines of innovation for the nation.

And hardest hit are the NSF grants for workforce development and STEM education critical for expanding the advanced manufacturing workforce

As of May 7, awards for STEM education accounted for 54 percent of [NSF grant] terminations, a loss of $773 million in funding, which represents nearly three-fourths of the total dollar amount of terminated foundation grants.

An irony is that NSF was the key source of funding for spreading technology expertise to a broader array of universities. Without NSF funding, the jobs and expertise will “become more concentrated at larger universities that are able to provide alternative sources of funding”- ie. graduates of Harvard and similarly well-endowed private universities will dominate the technology field at the expense of those from state universities and community colleges.

Ultimately, China is laughing at Trump's war on universities across the country, since they know he is making any manufacturing revival impossible in the U.S. by undercutting the pipeline for advanced engineering and related skills needed for any challenge to China’s manufacturing dominance.

His tariff wars are destroying business confidence in the short-term, leading to U.S. manufacturing contracting for the last three months.

But the long-term damage will be destroying the funding for both workforce development and advanced technology research needed for a competitive manufacturing base. And recovering from the wrecking ball Trump is taking to U.S. manufacturing may take decades.